January 25

January 25, 2005: Crime Still Falling

New Government figures indicate that crime in England and Wales continues to fall, with the risk of being a victim of crime, at 25 per cent, the lowest in more than 20 years. ‘Crime in England and Wales: Quarterly update to September 2004' has just been issued. According to the British Crime Survey (BCS), which many criminologists consider to an authoritative and reliable indicator of crime trends, crime fell by 11 per cent in the year ending September 2004. This continues the trend of significant falls in all crime measured by the BCS since the mid-90s.

Police recorded crime figures for the period July-September 2004 show a 6 per cent drop compared to the same quarter last year. The National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) was introduced formally in all police forces in April 2002 and informally in a number of forces prior to this. The NCRS has led to increases in some of the figures as police are now recording crimes that, although taking place, were not previously recorded. The new system is arguably more accurate and transparent, recording a crime when a victim reports it. The NCRS has been particularly effective at picking up low-level thuggery and yobbish behaviour that involve no serious physical injury to the victim are listed as ‘other wounding’, ‘common assault’ and ‘harassment’, and it is these offences, accounting for two thirds of all violent crime, that are driving the increases in police recorded violent crime.

The trend of falls in vehicle thefts, burglary and robbery also continues.

According to the BCS, violent crime has fallen by 36 per cent since its peak in 1995, including a fall of 9 per cent over the last year (though the fall in the last year is, in itself, not statistically significant).

However, police recorded violence increased by 6 per cent, which may reflect better reporting of ‘low level’ thuggery, domestic violence and sex offences, the effect of new sex offence laws coming into force in May, and the police service’s increased compliance with the new recording standards. Nearly half of all ‘violent crimes’ did not involve any injury to the victim.

Recorded crime figures for firearms offences show a 5 per cent drop in serious injuries and a 15 per cent fall in the use of handguns. Firearms offences overall rose by 5 per cent, although the biggest rises were for offences that resulted in slight injuries or no injuries and for the use of imitation firearms.

There have been significant changes to the way violent crime is recorded by the police, with counting rule changes in 1998 more than doubling the number of violent crimes recorded, and recording changes in 2002 (the introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard) adding another 23 per cent.

Taking these factors into account, actual incidents of violent crime have arguably decreased rather than increased after the 1998 changes. Some local policing activity, such as local campaigns on anti-social behaviour, also affect crime recording. Much of what is recorded as violent crime, such as common assault, amounts to actions such as pushing and shoving, and involves little or no physical injury to the victim.

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